In boardrooms across South Africa, retail executives are asking one fundamental question: Are we spending our marketing budget in the right place?
The answer, more often than not, is misleading — not because marketing is ineffective, but because the models used to measure success are outdated.
While South Africa’s online retail market grew to R96 billion in 2024 (8% of total retail) and is expected to reach R130 billion by 2025, more than 90% of sales still happen in-store. Yet many boards and businesses continue to measure marketing effectiveness with attribution models designed for simpler times.
The result? Retail brands are misreporting ROI, overspending on “closer” channels, underfunding brand-building, and ultimately losing millions in potential revenue.
This article explains why attribution models are fundamental, highlights the flaws in outdated models, and provides executive guidelines for moving towards data-driven attribution models.
Why Attribution Models Matter
Attribution models decide which marketing channels deserve credit for a sale. For boards and businesses, this is not a marketing detail, it is a marketing budget allocation mechanism.
- CFOs rely on attribution to report ROI, determine efficiency of spend, and protect shareholder value.
- CMOs use attribution to defend budgets and prove marketing’s role as a growth driver.
- Directors require attribution clarity to make investment decisions and align short-term performance with long-term strategy.
If the attribution model is wrong, every subsequent financial decision is distorted.
The Customer Journey Is No Longer Linear
Consider a real-world example:
- A customer sees a Facebook advert for a retailer’s winter range.
- They visit the retailer’s blog to read styling advice.
- They receive an email voucher offering 10% off.
- They redeem the voucher in-store.
Who should get the credit for the sale?
- Facebook, which introduced the brand?
- The blog, which built consideration?
- The email voucher, which triggered action?
- Or the in-store purchase itself?
The answer depends entirely on the attribution model chosen. And this is where most boards and businesses are making costly mistakes.
Outdated Retail Attribution Models
1. Last-Click Attribution
- How it works: 100% of the credit goes to the final interaction.
- Business appeal: It’s simple to understand and easy to report.
- Problem: It ignores the role of awareness and nurturing channels.
Impact in retail: If a voucher redemption is the last step, the model gives the store or voucher campaign 100% of the credit. This encourages overspending on vouchers while underfunding the Facebook and content campaigns that created demand.
2. First-Click Attribution
- How it works: The first interaction gets 100% of the credit.
- Business appeal: Highlights brand awareness campaigns.
- Problem: It ignores the influence of nurturing and conversion touchpoints.
Impact in retail: The Facebook ad looks like the sole driver of sales, while email and in-store vouchers appear irrelevant.
3. Linear Attribution
- How it works: Equal credit across all touchpoints.
- Business appeal: Appears fair and prevents channel conflict.
- Problem: Oversimplifies. Not all touchpoints are equally influential.
Impact in retail: Facebook, blog, email, and in-store each receive 25% of the credit, even though Facebook may have driven 70% of the demand.
4. Time Decay Attribution
- How it works: Heavier weight on recent interactions.
- Business appeal: Recognises that the final push matters.
- Problem: Still undervalues early awareness campaigns that attract new customers.
Impact in retail: The email and in-store voucher receive most of the credit, while Facebook and blog look weak.
Why Outdated Attribution Models Cost Millions
Overinvestment in “Closers”
When businesses rely on last-click or time decay attribution, budgets are redirected to the final step in the journey — often branded search or vouchers. These channels look like top performers, but they are actually harvesting demand created elsewhere.
Result: The brand spends millions capturing customers who were already going to buy, while underfunding campaigns that generate new customers.
Undervaluing Awareness
Top-of-funnel campaigns such as Facebook ads, and Google, are critical for long-term customer acquisition. Outdated attribution models make them look inefficient, leading businesses to cut them.
Result: The brand saves money short term but weakens its growth pipeline.
Distorted ROI Reporting
CFOs depend on attribution to calculate ROI. Outdated attribution models present incomplete numbers, which flow into quarterly reports, investor decks, and capital allocation decisions.
Result: Shareholders and boards make strategic choices based on flawed data.
Blindness to Omnichannel Journeys
In South Africa, where most purchases still happen in-store, outdated attribution ignores the digital influence on offline sales.
Result: The majority of revenue (90% of sales) is not linked to online marketing, making digital spend look wasteful when in fact it is driving store traffic.
Linking Digital Attribution with In-Store Sales
The biggest blind spot for South African businesses and boards is the inability of outdated attribution models to capture the connection between online influence and in-store revenue.
How Modern Retailers Bridge the Gap
- Loyalty Programmes
- Loyalty cards and apps connect offline purchases with online profiles.
- Example: a shopper sees an ad, then uses their loyalty card in-store, closing the loop.
- Promo Codes and Coupons
- Campaign-specific vouchers redeemed in-store tie physical sales to digital campaigns.
- POS Integration
- Point-of-sale systems feed transaction data into CRM and attribution models.
- Geo-Fencing
- Location-based campaigns track when exposed customers visit stores.
- AI Models
- Data-driven attribution combines digital and offline signals, assigning proportional credit to each channel.
Example:
- Journey: Facebook ad → Blog → Email voucher → In-store purchase.
- Last-Click: 100% voucher.
- Linear: 25% each.
- Data-Driven: Facebook 40%, Blog 15%, Email 25%, Voucher 20%.
Modern Attribution Models for Retail Businesses
Multi-Touch Attribution (MTA)
- Weights each touchpoint according to influence.
- Reflects the role of both awareness and conversion channels.
Data-Driven Attribution (DDA)
- Machine learning analyses thousands of journeys.
- Learns which touchpoints consistently drive sales — online and offline.
- Already adopted by 75% of global businesses moving beyond last-click.
Unified Marketing Measurement (UMM)
- Blends econometrics, machine learning, and digital tracking.
- Provides a single, board-ready number for ROI that integrates offline.
Executive Guidelines
- Audit Your Attribution Model
- Check if last-click or linear models are still used.
- Run Models in Parallel
- Compare last-click, linear, and data-driven outputs for 3–6 months.
- Integrate Online and Offline Data
- Connect POS, CRM, and loyalty systems to attribution frameworks.
- Educate the Board
- Set expectations: attribution is probabilistic, not perfect — but far superior to outdated models.
- Reallocate Budgets
- Redirect wasted spend from “closers” to awareness campaigns that fuel future growth.
Conclusion
Attribution models are not technical details — they are strategic financial instruments. Outdated models such as last-click and linear mislead boards, distort ROI, and cause millions in wasted spend.
In South Africa’s hybrid retail economy, where digital sparks demand but 90% of purchases still happen in-store, the gap between digital influence and offline revenue is the single biggest blind spot in marketing accountability.
Boards that adopt data-driven, multi-touch attribution models will:
- Protect shareholder value.
- See the true ROI of digital spend.
- Fund growth channels with confidence.
- Lead the market as competitors fall behind.
Those who continue relying on outdated models will keep losing millions — not because marketing is failing, but because measurement is.
South African retail brands cannot afford to lose millions through outdated attribution. CMOs and CFOs who continue to rely on simplistic models risk not only wasted spend but also reputational damage in the boardroom.
The way forward is clear: audit current models, adopt data-driven attribution, and integrate finance and marketing strategies. The brands that do this will unlock hidden ROI, drive sustainable growth, and emerge as true market leaders in a digital-first economy.
How We Can Help
At RAS Digital Marketing, we specialise in helping businesses optomise their attribution models, uncover hidden ROI, and scale with AI-powered funnels.
Click HERE to get in touch with our team.